It has taken a long time and a lot of point spread losses before bettors have become comfortable wagering against Patrick Machomes and his Kansas City Chiefs. But, after another narrow win last Friday, when most bettors were burned laying double-digits with the Chiefs at home, the time has come.
Today, more wagers are on the Los Angeles Chargers getting four points against the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
Good bet?
Well, betting against the defending Super Bowl Champions this year has been a good bet while they have collected only four point spread wins in a dozen decisions. Only the New York Giants, New York Jets and Tennessee Titans came into the week with a worse point spread record.
So, bet against the Chiefs tonight when they host the Chargers?
I think not.
A review of the Chiefs season shows that their straight-up wins, they have lost only one game this season straight-up, were all gained while they in all, but one game were favored on the point spread and, in most cases, playing an inferior team. Their only straight-up loss this season was one of the two games they kicked off as an underdog, that was three weeks ago in Buffalo in a game won by the Bills at Highmark Stadium, 30-21.
The Chiefs point spread losses have come against the likes of the Raiders, twice, and Carolina Panthers, a couple teams that won’t be playing after this year’s regular season. It is like this, consider a father is in front of his house shooting hoops with his ten-year-old son in a friendly game. The father doesn’t want to crush the kid’s spirit, but, if he was like me when I was in that position with my son, he also doesn’t want to give the kid a win he doesn’t deserve.
The Chiefs are like that father with his son against most of their opponents. They can toy with them, confident that in the end they have the where-with-all to get the win.
Check out the four wins the Chiefs have earned this season against the point spread, all were gained against formidable opponents. They beat the Baltimore Ravens on opening night, the Cincinnati Bengals in second week action, the New Orleans Saints on a Monday night, and the San Francisco 49ers.
Now, we know the Saints dropped off, but their contest in Kansas City was early in the season when they had the best point differential in the league and before quarterback Derek Carr was injured. We also know the 49ers have had an injury plagued season and are struggling, but when they met the Chiefs at Levi’s Stadium in October, the 49ers came into that game a two-point favorite.
In other words, when challenged, the Chiefs consistently play better than when they figure the outcome is predetermined in their favor.
They know the Chargers are a worthy opponent. Jim Harbaugh has his Los Angeles squad in prime playoff position after winning five of their most recent six games and bringing a 9-3 point spread record into tonight’s contest. Only the Denver Broncos have a better point spread record, 10-3, in the entire league.
So, tonight, we get a Chiefs team on full alert, which is where they play their best. Is it enough to cover the four-point spread?
I like the Chiefs, but I’m not throwing money at their point spread prospects.