NFL 2024 Season - Week 16
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Week 16
Vintage 2018
Penix Debut
Dog Day
Playoff Position
Rest of the Story
Different Sundays
Run Some Tests
Without and With
Week 15
Two Tonight
Playoff Chances
Wild Card Challenge
Best of the Best
Next
Dire Straits
And It's Good
Bloated Lines
Week 14
Running up the Score
Challenge Me
Finding Reasons to Win
Crab Feed
Week Off
Good Enough
Buyers Regret
Pulled the Rug
Week 13
Mile High Hopes
Top and Bottom
Fourth Time the Charm
Bounce Back
Engage Spark
Line Up
Out in the Cold
Thanksgiving Visitors
Good Enough
Motivation on Steroids
Week 12
Second Best
Heavyweight Bout
QB's Ins and Outs
Everybody In
Too Easy
Walk the Plank
Hot to Trot
Try, Try, Try, Try, Try Again
Week 11
Mouse Trap
Must Game
Malfunction
Easy Does It
Old Foes
Falcons Fly into Mile High
Matter of Time
Improv
To the Brink
Week 10
Odd Man Out
Lions come Calling
Rookie versus Veteran
Call to Action
Full Reverse
When 8-0 is 4-4
Game of Contradictions
NFC West Bunch
Early Boarding
Week 9
Not Enough, Too Much
Real or Imposters
Groin Shot
Best Show
Saddle Up
Dull Edges
Telling Actions
Annihilation Formula
Week 8
No and No
Old Glory
Rookie Face Off
Adding it Up
Holding On
Jets Down
Unload and Reload
No Surprise
Career Paths
It Hurts
Week 7
Harbaugh Monday
Kids Camp
Barkley Back
Bird Battle
Mouse Time
Too Many?
Gone Shopping
Not Bad
40 for 3
Week 6
Try New
Night Vision
Trap Door
Looking Up
Wake Up Call
All Good Things
Bad Idea
Unexpected
Fire One
Week 5
Yes & Yes
Old Rivals
Rookie Sensation
So Close
Lunch in Seattle
Wake the Roosters
No Respect
Too Sweet
Turtle Flip
Week 4
Landmine
Bottoms Up
Winners and Losers
Call Me
Short Line
Reality Bites
Like Tonight
Uptick
Challenge Generates Performance
Week 3
Two Times
Reduced Value
Stars Down
The Other 21
Opportunity Knocks
Lots of Questions
Move Along People
Times Up
Week 2
Confidence Game
First and Second Picked QB's
Avoiding the Donut
Do or Die
One for the Road
Likewise
Adjustment Bureau
Down ... Not Out
Week 1
Time Marches On
Cashing the Trade
Start Here
Say What
Quick Up, Quick Down
Brazil Play Date
Top Two Open
Super Bowl Pick
Season Win Totals
Moving on Up
Breakout to Breakdown
Preseason 4
Preseason Wrap
Rookie Playoff Run
Preseason 3
Short Memory
Two In, One Up
Eagles Hunt
Winning Formula
Preseason 2
Quarterback Shuffle
One Two, or Two One
Starters Sit
Remote Control
Money be Damned
Preseason 1
One Season to the Next
Public Shift
Comets in the Night
Offseason
Mahomes Chasing History
All's Well that Ends Well
Ups and Downs
     
 
Bad Idea
by Dennis Ranahan

EARLY ALERT: The game played in London between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Chicago Bears this Sunday morning that starts at 6:30 a.m. Pacific Time is simply too good of a point spread play to pass up. Therefore, if our Friday night numbers continue to show an edge on this game that warrants a rated money play, that choice will be posted on this site on Saturday morning. The early release will offer clients an opportunity to get down on the game prior to early Sunday start.

As for tonight’s game, between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks, can you see the 49ers losing this game and falling two games back to their hosts in the NFC West Division standings?

Me neither.

But that doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen or that the advantage when the more than field goal on the point spread is factored in, doesn’t offer a slight edge with the home underdog tonight.

While it could have been predicted at the beginning of the season that this Thursday night prime time encounter could have been for first place in the NFC West, I don’t think many considered the possibility that San Francisco would fall to a 2 and 4 record with a loss. If that happens, and the Seahawks snap their two-game losing streak tonight, they will have both a two-game bulge in the standings over the 49ers and the early tiebreaker with a straight-up win in this heated NFC West series.

If the Seahawks were favored tonight, then winning would be a much more difficult task. If they saw the real possibility of pulling two games ahead of the 49ers then the motivation would be screwy for the home team and San Francisco would have a decisive edge to not fall two back.

But, despite their early season difficulties, the 49ers have only won one of their most recent four games, San Francisco comes into this contest with confidence they are going to win and catch the Seahawks in the standings.

Seems easy.

Seems logical.

How could it be any other way?

The Problem is, those three most recent statements are what swings the advantage to the home team’s favor. The eye of the tiger, the team that knows they have most to overcome, is the team at home getting points with a better record.

When we look at it that way, how could we back any side in this game other than taking the 3½ points on the spread and expect a close game that could go either way, but will likely end within a field goal?

I love the 49ers to win in this spot, but also respect that they are not the percentage side of the wager. To bet what you love over advanced intelligence is a real bad idea.

When all is considered, and because I do expect a straight-up 49ers win, my staff and I have come to the conclusion that the best bet tonight is none.