We have a conflict in the Qoxhi offices, and I’m at a one to two disadvantage.
Kevin and Paul consider the Houston Texans among the best teams in the National Football League. They both appraise Quarterback C.J. Stroud as the next great signal caller in the league and are convinced that the combination of Stroud and his head coach, DeMeco Ryans, will stay together for more than a decade and win multiple Super Bowls.
On the other hand, is me.
I think the Texans are supremely talented and Stroud is an outstanding quarterback talent that will continue to thrive in the NFL. But, as for Kevin and Paul saying the Texans time is now, I suggest it will blossom in the near future, but not this season.
Why?
As you may know, if you’ve been following me for long, I have a theory that has been tested and proved right year-after-year. That is, when a team jumps in the standings, goes from the cellar to the playoffs one year, they have a down season on the heels of their initial success. This common occurrence is pinned to my talent and history evaluation versus expectations.
After a season like the Texans enjoyed last year, jumping from the cellar to the playoffs with a rookie quarterback and first-year head coach, you know expectations in Houston are through the roof. Expectations that exceed actual talent and winning history consistently drive results down, usually in the straight-up win/loss column and even more commonly against the point spread.
While Kevin and Paul are still touting the Texans as a threat this year, and have a three wins in four starts resume to substantiate their claim, I point out that Houston hasn’t yet beaten a point spread this season. Which means this, the public has the Texans overrated and the books are collecting on that public perception.
Then we get to this week, and we have a crossing of the paths on the Texans.
The books made them a home favorite in their contest on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills got drilled last Sunday night by the Baltimore Ravens but came into that primetime game with three straight wins and the look of a team poised to compete for a Super Bowl championship.
Hours before the Bills got creamed, the Texans used a late comeback to edge a still winless Jacksonville Jaguars squad. The victory, the Texans third in four starts, was another point spread loss for Ryans’ team. Houston was favored over the visiting Jaguars by six points, while their late touchdown provided a four-point win, 24-20.
Following that narrow home win, and with the Bills coming off a lopsided loss, the books installed Houston as a 1½ point favorite over Buffalo. The public might be aware that teams that get blown out one week have a tendency to bounce back the next … particularly good teams like the Bills.
By Wednesday morning, the public had wagered the Bills into a road favorite role in Houston, Buffalo is now giving one point on the spread.
As usual, Kevin and Paul are lining up behind the Texans, while this week I get the rare opportunity of joining them.
While season long trends can mold results one-way, the unique factors of a specific game always rule the day. In this case, the Texans as a home underdog to a Buffalo team playing a second straight road game is just too sweet to pass up.
From the benefits gained from differing opinions being respected on both sides comes unity at Qoxhi. And a great investment for all of us.
Qoxhi Picks: Houston Texans (+1) over Buffalo Bills