NFL 2024 Season - Week 16
Picksfootball
 

Headline Play

Articles published multiple times per week, offering insights and picks on upcoming games.
 
SEASON:

Article Archive

Week 16
Vintage 2018
Penix Debut
Dog Day
Playoff Position
Rest of the Story
Different Sundays
Run Some Tests
Without and With
Week 15
Two Tonight
Playoff Chances
Wild Card Challenge
Best of the Best
Next
Dire Straits
And It's Good
Bloated Lines
Week 14
Running up the Score
Challenge Me
Finding Reasons to Win
Crab Feed
Week Off
Good Enough
Buyers Regret
Pulled the Rug
Week 13
Mile High Hopes
Top and Bottom
Fourth Time the Charm
Bounce Back
Engage Spark
Line Up
Out in the Cold
Thanksgiving Visitors
Good Enough
Motivation on Steroids
Week 12
Second Best
Heavyweight Bout
QB's Ins and Outs
Everybody In
Too Easy
Walk the Plank
Hot to Trot
Try, Try, Try, Try, Try Again
Week 11
Mouse Trap
Must Game
Malfunction
Easy Does It
Old Foes
Falcons Fly into Mile High
Matter of Time
Improv
To the Brink
Week 10
Odd Man Out
Lions come Calling
Rookie versus Veteran
Call to Action
Full Reverse
When 8-0 is 4-4
Game of Contradictions
NFC West Bunch
Early Boarding
Week 9
Not Enough, Too Much
Real or Imposters
Groin Shot
Best Show
Saddle Up
Dull Edges
Telling Actions
Annihilation Formula
Week 8
No and No
Old Glory
Rookie Face Off
Adding it Up
Holding On
Jets Down
Unload and Reload
No Surprise
Career Paths
It Hurts
Week 7
Harbaugh Monday
Kids Camp
Barkley Back
Bird Battle
Mouse Time
Too Many?
Gone Shopping
Not Bad
40 for 3
Week 6
Try New
Night Vision
Trap Door
Looking Up
Wake Up Call
All Good Things
Bad Idea
Unexpected
Fire One
Week 5
Yes & Yes
Old Rivals
Rookie Sensation
So Close
Lunch in Seattle
Wake the Roosters
No Respect
Too Sweet
Turtle Flip
Week 4
Landmine
Bottoms Up
Winners and Losers
Call Me
Short Line
Reality Bites
Like Tonight
Uptick
Challenge Generates Performance
Week 3
Two Times
Reduced Value
Stars Down
The Other 21
Opportunity Knocks
Lots of Questions
Move Along People
Times Up
Week 2
Confidence Game
First and Second Picked QB's
Avoiding the Donut
Do or Die
One for the Road
Likewise
Adjustment Bureau
Down ... Not Out
Week 1
Time Marches On
Cashing the Trade
Start Here
Say What
Quick Up, Quick Down
Brazil Play Date
Top Two Open
Super Bowl Pick
Season Win Totals
Moving on Up
Breakout to Breakdown
Preseason 4
Preseason Wrap
Rookie Playoff Run
Preseason 3
Short Memory
Two In, One Up
Eagles Hunt
Winning Formula
Preseason 2
Quarterback Shuffle
One Two, or Two One
Starters Sit
Remote Control
Money be Damned
Preseason 1
One Season to the Next
Public Shift
Comets in the Night
Offseason
Mahomes Chasing History
All's Well that Ends Well
Ups and Downs
     
 
Out in the Cold
by Dennis Ranahan

My Dad used to tell us the story that as a kid he and his friends would run their tongues along the railing after the first snow. He grew up in Chicago, and the picture in my mind of kids laughing while doing this was always abruptly ended when he told about his buddy Donald, whose tongue got stuck to the railing and he lost a layer of it in the removal.

End of game.

We grew up in the San Francisco Bay Area, so snow days and running out tongues along a frozen railing was never an issue. But cold weather and trying to win when the temperature is below 40 degrees have proven just as much of a problem for the Miami Dolphins as Donald’s tongue on the railing.

Tua Tagovailoa has never won an NFL game when the game time temperature is below 40 degrees. He is 0 and 7 in such encounters. The Dolphins, even before Tua came on the scene, have a horrible record in cold weather.

Why?

I mean, I know they are from Florida where the wealthy from New York go to spend their winters in conditions not too much different than their summers in the East. But a football team is not a collection of locals who have grown up in warm weather conditions, they are athletes drawn from college teams that played throughout the country. The Dolphins have athletes on their roster from schools located in cold weather sites including Northern Iowa, Washington, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin and Michigan.

How did these athletes who were used to playing in cold weather during their college years suddenly turn into pussies when joining the Dolphins?

Okay, the uniforms don’t help. White doesn’t exactly shield the cold. But still, this is a trend that one might think could be upset under the right circumstances.

Tonight, in Green Bay, when the Dolphins meet the Packers at Lambeau Field, the game time temperature is forecasted to be 26 degrees.

Bad weather for the Dolphins. Right?

Right.

Take the Packers and laugh all the way to the bank?

Not necessarily.

Both these teams are in need of a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Packers are chasing the Detroit Lions in the NFC North Division which likely will reduce their path into postseason competition through the Wild Card route.

The Dolphins, while their quarterback and a number of other players were sidelined with injuries, almost buried their season beyond redemption. The Dolphins lost six of seven games early in the season while injuries played a major role. Now, as healthy as they have been all season, Miami has rebounded with four straight solid performances including a trio of wins to vault them back into the postseason conversation.

If it was 56 degrees, I’d take the road team in this one.

At 26 degrees, I’m not tempted to go against the Dolphins but certainly am not going to bet on them doing something they have never done with Tagovailoa at quarterback.

Win out in the cold.