Three games that most football fans agree are the best slate of games on Thanksgiving in history are on tap today and tonight. We’ve got intriguing teams and division leaders in key games, two of them division battles and a marquee contest between the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs.
Now, good games all from a fan perspective, but my numbers come up without a clear wagering choice on any of the contests. I can give you conflicting reasons to take the home or visiting team in all three games, so I will.
Off the top, the Lions looked initially to us as the best play of the day, but numbers rolled in last night as we canvased the Nevada sports books that generally agreed with our assessment of the Lions over the Packers.
Here is why Detroit looks like the side. They lost on opening day to this same Green Bay team at Lambeau Field. A division revenge game between comparable teams usually goes the opposite way from the first meeting. Edge Lions.
The books invited Detroit money, opening this game with the Lions favored by a seemingly short line of 2½ points. Why didn’t they open it with the Lions favored by at least a field goal, which the line grew to after the public came in on this game with nearly eight of nine wagers backing the home team.
Do you see my concern here? The books invited Detroit action, got it, and then moved the line up to where it by most accounts should have opened. The books know what they are doing, and they want the public betting on the Lions, which eliminates me from taking that side.