I suspect when I say “Over/Under” in regards to the National Football League you would think I was referring to the total on the game.
There is another kind of over/under I follow in the NFL, and that is teams that have won over or under in their win total in relation to their actual talent. Now, understand that wins and losses are absolute. Fans can argue their teams are better than their records, but wins and losses are like cancer, they can’t be talked away.
Talent in the NFL is subjective. A healthy argument can be made that a team is better or worse than their actual record … and this debate can get dicey. Beware of those claiming talent is in stark contrast to actual records.
By that standard, beware of me this week because I have a team that I think has a record that is not a reflection of their real team strength. Combine that with a game this week in which, by my calculations, they are playing a team that has more wins than their talent warrants.
When this occurs, and note this requires handicapping to fly in the face of absolute won/loss records, I get excited. I think I have an investment worth putting money behind. I pause just long enough to recheck my numbers and make sure I want to challenge an absolute.
Done that.