I am drawn to underdogs in the National Football League like a moth is to a lightbulb in the night. This attraction to taking points on the point spread is not always beneficial. Last week, for instance, I loved the Los Angeles Rams to even their season series against the San Francisco 49ers but backed off making it a rated play because the line had swelled to six points.
Didn’t matter, should have been comfortable with giving the bloated line, and cashed at the payout window after Matthew Stafford and company rolled to an easy road win, 42-26.
Still, give me enough time to go over a game and I invariably will find reasons why even an overmatched underdog has a chance, at least against a bloated point spread. I find that tendency is in full-fledged flight today as I examine tonight’s game between the New England Patriots and New York Jets.
No team has been more responsible for pickpocketing profits for me and my clients this year than the Patriots. I am always in search of a team driven by recent failures to succeed, and conversely teams that have enjoyed more success than their talent seems to warrant. The Patriots have enjoyed more success this year than any team in the league … and they didn’t come into this season expecting anything special given they were coming off a last place four-win season in 2024 and had a new head coach.
That new head coach, Mike Vrabel, has guided the Patriots to the top of the standings over a much higher ranked Buffalo Bills team coming into this campaign. The Patriots not only beat the Bills in their first of two head-to-head meetings this season, but now after winning seven straight games, including six of those contests against the point spread, New England has a 1½ game lead over the Bills in the AFC East Division.
How good is New England?