For the past 20 National Football League seasons I was a guest on Tom Tolbert’s show which aired on KNBR-Radio in San Francisco. After 28 years with the station, Tolbert parted ways with his former employer last October and this season he has introduced a new podcast appropriately called, The Tom Tolbert Show. Each Friday I am a guest on Tom’s show, and because of our geographical location the San Francisco 49ers are always a point of interest.
Two weeks ago, we were discussing the 49ers rash of injuries that have sidelined a number of their star players from both sides of the line. Most notably Brock Purdy and George Kittle were missing from the offense, but the topic two weeks ago was the loss of one of the best defensive linemen in the game, Nick Bosa.
“That’s going to hurt,” we both agreed and I went on to add, “They still have one impact defensive player with linebacker Fred Warner.”
Last week, Warner was injured and is out for the season. So, while the offense will get back the services of Kittle tonight, Purdy is still missing for at least one more week, their defense is truly weakened. Without Bosa or Warner available for the year this San Francisco team has holes in their stop unit that didn’t exist before the crippling injuries.
Tonight, they host the Atlanta Falcons and are favored on the point spread. A line that opened on Monday with the 49ers favored by three points and a line that has been shaved to currently sit at one point. By kickoff, our indicators show the game will go off as a pick ‘em.
The line move is in conflict with the betting action on this game. The 49ers were collecting nearly 60% of the wagers even when the line was three. How does a line move three points down while the majority of wagers are on the favorite?
Somebody who might know more than the public likes the Falcons tonight.
The public may be focused on a Falcons team that got beat in their last road game, 30-0, by the Carolina Panthers. And, perhaps, the public is thinking that back-to-back Atlanta victories over the Washington Commanders and Buffalo Bills will not have them on top of their game tonight. Maybe they will have a letdown following their huge home win over the highly regarded Bills.
I do believe that is faulty thinking.
The Falcons collapse in Carolina followed their impressive road win over the Minnesota Vikings. What the trip to Carolina created for the Falcons was overconfidence based on their prior week success. But to apply that same principle to tonight’s game is missing the point. The Falcons had a letdown against the Panthers because they were coming off a big win and expected an easy road triumph.
Tonight, they are coming off a big win, but they opened as road underdogs and the 49ers, injured or not, are a team that gets the attention of every opponent they meet.
There are impact players missing from both sides of the line for the home team tonight, and the Falcons are perfectly poised to pick up a third straight win.
So, bet the Falcons?
Well, there is a problem with that. From a physical perspective the visitors have an edge tonight, but the 49ers know it … and that could guide the proud team led by Kyle Shanahan to an inspired effort in the face of confronting their mounting injuries.
I have a lean on this one with the visitors, but not quite enough to generate a rated play.