The Detroit Lions are out of the hunt for a playoff berth, eliminated with their loss yesterday to the Minnesota Vikings. The Green Bay Packers are in, based on that same result. All the playoff spots but one are filled in the National Football Conference while what remains over the final two weeks of the campaign is how the teams will be seeded and whether the Carolina Panthers or Tampa Bay Buccaneers join the six teams already in.
The final team to enter the postseason in the NFC will be determined by which team wins the NFC South Division. With their victory last week over their division rivals, the Panthers moved into position of gaining that playoff spot with wins over their final two games. Their home victory over Baker Mayfield and company last Sunday gave them a one game edge in the division with two games left on their 2025 regular season schedule … the final game of the regular season pits these two division combatants against each other at Raymond James Stadium.
The only way next week’s game in Tampa wouldn’t decide the NFC South race would be if the Buccaneers lose to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium and the Panthers win at home over the Seattle Seahawks. If both Tampa Bay and Carolina win or lose, or if the Panthers lose to the Seahawks while the Bucs are winning on the road, the final game of the season between these two teams would decide their division title.
First things first. The Bucs are favored in Miami, which gives the already eliminated Dolphins an edge over the visitors. The end of the season formula is opposite conventional thinking. When a team is out of the playoff hunt, like the Minnesota Vikings yesterday when they hosted the Detroit Lions, and their opponent needs the game to stay in the race history shows the team already eliminated has a significant edge.
Perhaps this tendency plays out because the already eliminated team now has something to play for, if only to mess up the plans of their opponent. While the team still looking to claim a playoff berth has more pressure to perform … which is not always a good thing.
So, don’t count the Dolphins out on Sunday at home against a Buccaneers team that started strong this season but has lost six of the seven games they have played since their bye week in mid-October. Last Sunday, they had a chance to take control of their division race, and failed against a Panthers squad that twice this season had been beaten by the New Orleans Saints.
If the Buccaneers do snap their losing streak with a win in Miami, the result of the Panthers game against the Seahawks becomes meaningless to the home team. Even with a loss, the Panthers would take their division crown with a victory in Tampa next week.
Doesn’t mean the Panthers don’t want to win this week, but as far as the game having meaning for the playoffs the pendulum swings the Seahawks way. Seattle is currently holding the number one seed in the NFC and yet either the Los Angeles Rams or San Francisco 49ers could take that spot. To maintain hold on the top seed the Seahawks need to win their final two games, this weekend in Carolina and next Sunday in San Francisco.
If the 49ers win out, victories over the Chicago Bears this weekend and next Sunday at home versus Seattle, they end the season with the top seed. Lurking on the edges are the Rams. To capture the NFC top seed Los Angeles needs the 49ers and Seahawks each to lose at least one of their two remaining games while they beat the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night and the Arizona Cardinals next Sunday.
Got that?
Well, get this.
The Seahawks position with the top seed on the line is why they are having to give that seemingly too high of a point spread for a game against a division leader. The line on this game opened on Sunday night with the Seahawks favored by seven points in Carolina. The books must like where that number is fixed because it hasn’t moved even while the majority of the bettors are biting at the big number.
The Seahawks are the better team with a two-game challenge to lock up the top seed. The Panthers are coming off their home-underdog win over their division rivals to put them closer to the division title.
Close, but not there.
And here, a real bad bet even with the bloated line.
Qoxhi Picks: Seattle Seahawks (-7) over Carolina Panthers