Only two of the outdoor National Football League games this weekend are expecting rain during their contests and they are both played today. Rain is in forecast for Tampa, where the Buccaneers host the Carolina Panthers, and in San Francisco, when the 49ers entertain the Seattle Seahawks.
When the schedule makers made these two the featured games on Saturday, they no doubt thought they had two games with great significance. They do, but not exactly how they anticipated it would shake down.
A couple weeks ago, the game to complete the season in Tampa had all the earmarks of deciding the NFC South Division and which team advanced to the postseason. Turns out, the Atlanta Falcons have had a spurt of success the past few weeks with wins over the Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams. Their success elevates them to the possibility of ending the season in a three-way tie with the Buccaneers and Panthers with eight wins and nine losses.
It doesn’t do the Falcons any good for them advancing to the postseason, but if the division does end in a three-way tie the division will go to the Panthers even if they lose today in Tampa.
For the Buccaneers to advance to the postseason, they both need to win today and have the New Orleans Saints win tomorrow at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. In other words, the Panthers only need to win today to gain a playoff berth while the Buccaneers need to win and get help.
For reasons that Freud could explain better than me, a team that needs to both win and get help is a consistent winner. In other words, the Buccaneers at home today look to end the season with a win while losing seven of their prior eight games … and by our accounts, they will.
The late game today, scheduled for 5:00 p.m. Pacific Time, has the 49ers hosting the Seahawks in an NFC West battle between two teams headed tor the playoffs. One will get in with a top seed, the other drops to a fifth seed.
In other words, a team with a losing record could enter the playoffs with a fourth seed and a home playoff game as the winner of the NFC South Division, while a team with at least a dozen wins will land in the fifth seed and open the postseason on the road.
This happened last year too, when the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions had the two best records in the National Football Conference and met on the final day of the regular season to decide who got the top seed and which team was relegated to the road with a fifth seed. It was Sam Darnold with the Vikings last season, and now he is in the same position 12 months later with the Seahawks. On the road needing a win to secure the top seed.
He didn’t get it last year; the Lions blew them out and a week later Darnold concluded his tenure with the Vikings with a Wild Card defeat against the Los Angeles Rams.
The knock on Darnold is that he chokes when all the marbles on the table. Tosses interceptions that cost his team the game. That is what San Francisco fans are hoping for today while their young gunslinger, Brock Purdy, continues his assault against opposing defenses. Over the past three games Purdy has led Kyle Shanahan’s team to 37, 48 and 42 points while winning all three games to set up tonight’s chance to capture the conference top seed.
The San Francisco season has been a great story of a team overcoming injuries and arriving at the pinnacle of winning their conference’s top regular season prize. While Purdy missed eight games with turf toe, his backup Mac Jones kept the 49ers in the race with play befitting a franchise quarterback.
Now, after not having to endure punishment for those eight weeks he was sidelined, Purdy looks healthier and quicker than those players who were on the field for 16 games. That offers the 49ers an offensive edge in this one, but, as time and results have long demonstrated, when push-comes-to-shove it is the defense in the NFL that rules the day.
That is where the Seahawks gain a significant edge and why they are favored at Levi’s Stadium tonight and by our calculations will win and cover.