The Indianapolis Colts are a strange lot.
They are the first team in 30 years to open a campaign with eight wins in ten games and miss the playoffs. They are, for the record, the fourth team to do this and the first since the 1995 Oakland Raiders. (The Seattle Seahawks in 1986 andBuffalo Bills in 1970 are the other two.)
Three weeks ago, they brought Philip Rivers out of retirement and the veteran making his first start in five years almost led an upset over the possible National Football Conference number one seed Seattle Seahawks. As much as Rivers, the Colts defense shined that day while limiting the potent Seahawks offense to six field goals in an 18-16 loss.
Before injuries sidelined quarterback Daniel Jones, it was their offense that had them winning eight of their first ten games. They were on a pace to score the most points in NFL history, and that offensive juggernaut was simply outsourcing their suspect defense.
The effort in Seattle seemed to indicate that the defense was playing better … not so in the succeeding games. They allowed 48 points to the San Francisco 49ers in a home Monday Night Football meeting and lost their third straight game with Rivers at quarterback last week while the Indianapolis Colts overcame a double-digit deficit to win.
So, the Colts defense isn’t any better, their offense is without their first-string quarterback and this week the veteran leadership of Rivers is going to be on the sideline as the Colts test their rookie out of Notre Dame, Riley Leonard.
What could go wrong here?
For the Colts? Everything.
They are meeting a Houston Texans team that still has a shot at their division title after opening their campaign with three losses. Know what the chances are of an 0-3 team winning their division? About the same as an 8-2 team missing the playoffs.
The Texans turnaround from early season woes are twofold. First, the Texans lost some close ones out of the gate to the Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars. A trio of contests that they were outscored by a combined 13 points. They righted their ship for a couple weeks but then injuries and a suspect offensive line derailed a contest at home against the Denver Broncos which left their season record at 3 and 5 midway through the season.
Houston hasn’t lost a game since.
What was hidden behind that losing record was that the Texans have perhaps the best defense in all of football. When quarterback C.J. Stroud returned from his injury this team looked like the basketball team in the Hoosier movie when they hit their stride.
Last week, they beat the Los Angeles Chargers on the road to clinch a playoff berth, and this week, they would need to win and have the Jacksonville Jaguars lose to the Tennessee Titans to win their division. It is unlikely that the Jaguars are going to get upset by one of the league’s weaklings, but the Texans beating a rookie quarterback while facing a porous defense is a formula for Houston winning big.
Qoxhi Picks: Houston Texans (-11) over Indianapolis Colts