It sure seems easy to bet against a team getting points that has won four straight games.
Yet, tonight, when the Miami Dolphins visit the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium, giving the three points on the line has attracted more bettors than taking the field goal on the spread with a Dolphins team that hasn’t lost a game since October.
The line hasn’t always been three points, earlier in the week the number was up to 3½ and threatening to go higher. Then the Steelers best defensive player, T.J. Watt, suffered a partially collapsed lung during a locker room procedure that required surgery and put him out of action for at least this game.
Upon that news, the line on this game dropped to the Steelers only laying three points … and it has stayed there.
Now, I see the loss of a key player different from most football followers. Line moves are most often caused by injuries, and the line consistently reflects that the team with the lost player getting more points or laying less. The world sees injuries as always a detriment to the team losing the player.
I think, more often than not, the loss of a key player serves as a motivational spike for the team having to compensate for his absence. Yesterday, the Steelers saw the lead they earned last week in the AFC North Division with their victory over the Baltimore Ravens threatened by John Harbaugh’s team's easy 24-0 triumph over the Cincinnati Bengals. If the Steelers don’t win tonight, they fall back into a tie with their primary division rivals.
So, what we’ve got here is a Steelers team that needs this game, at home, with a point spread shaved based on the loss of Watt … which might just serve to enhance their play on both sides of the ball.
Yes, the Dolphins have won four in a row, but the temperature in Pittsburgh tonight is not necessarily to their liking. Historically, the Dolphins have trouble in cold weather. Their all-time record when the thermometer reads less than 40 degrees is 25-48. But wait, it gets worse for their prospects tonight given in those cold conditions Miami Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is 0-7 lifetime.
But wait, there is more.
The game time temperature for this game is expected to be 15 degrees.
Let me get this straight, the Dolphins will be wearing their white uniforms in freezing conditions and the Steelers their home black jerseys and Miami has trouble in conditions under 40 degrees … and this is 25 degrees below that.
It may well be freezing in Pittsburgh tonight, but I think the home team will be hot.
Well, maybe it is this easy to lay points against a team on a four-game winning streak.
Qoxhi Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) over Miami Dolphins