There are two ways to look at tonight’s Sunday Night Football matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Chargers.
One way is to note that last week the Steelers knocked off the team that came into ninth week action with the best record in football, the Indianapolis Colts. That victory kept Mike Tomlin’s team atop the AFC North Division which includes three teams that have struggled though the first half of the season, the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns.
One might consider that the Steelers lead the league in forcing turnovers, and collected six last week in their win over the Indianapolis Colts as a very good thing.
Yet, may I offer a fly in the ointment before we crowned the Steelers Super Bowl Champions.
Last Sunday, the Steelers did have a plus five turnover ratio against the Colts while collecting three interceptions and three fumbles. And while they won the game, they did it by a score that seems to be much closer than it should have been for a team that had a plus five turnover ratio. No stat is more influential in a final score than turnovers, and when a team gets a plus five from their opponent it could be expected that the team with the dramatic turnover ratio advantage would win the game by at least double-digts, perhaps by three touchdowns or more.
The Steelers win over the Colts was 28-21.
Not enough to get excited about in the face of the extra possessions in the game.
I read that as a heavy concern that the first place Steelers may not be as good as their record, which is five wins and three losses. And, while they have had the benefit of watching their two primary challengers in their divisions struggle while their quarterbacks are and were sidelined with injuries, Joe Burrow in Cincinnati and Lamar Jackson in Baltimore, this now has the all the markings of a Steelers team that burst out of the gate but faded as the race went on.
Their opponent tonight has also been hampered by injuries. The Chargers losses have been on the unit that John Madden contended was the most important group on the field, the offensive line.
During the preseason, Jim Harbaugh’s squad lost All-Pro left tackle Rashawn Slater, and while that is going to be an ongoing problem, they did have an adequate replacement to move from the right side to the left tackle position. One-time first round draft choice Joe Alt.
With Alt protecting quarterback Justin Herbert’s left side, the Chargers offense got off to a quick start while opening the campaign with a trio of wins over the Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos. Three games in the books, and the Chargers had already beaten each of their AFC West opponents.
Could it get any better.
No.
But it could get worse … and did.
The Chargers have won only one point spread the last six weeks which began with a Week Four loss on the road to the New York Giants. At home the following Sunday, they forgot there was a second half to be played and surrendered a 10-0 early lead to a lopsided 27-10 loss to the Washington Commanders.
It took a last second field goal to edge the Dolphins the following week in Miami, and they lost by two touchdowns at home to the Indianapolis Colts three weeks ago. After a one-sided win over the Minnesota Vikings, the Chargers just got by the talent challenged Tennessee Titans last week on the road, 27-20.
In that game, more trouble on the all-important offensive line position, as Alt was lost for the remainder of the season with an ankle injury.
Here is the deal, when the two teams' line up next February to vie for the Super Bowl LX title at Levi’s Stadium the announcer is likely to point out that the two teams involved in that game have had the benefit of an offensive line that remained healthy throughout the regular and postseason.
It seems to always be that way, which by that measure eliminates the Chargers from advancing to the last leg of the quest for the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
And while they have had their problems with marginal teams, like the Giants, Dolphins and Titans, they have answered the bell when challenged by a worthy opponent.
The Steelers are a worthy opponent, and a likely loser tonight.