The Tampa Bay Buccaneers win over the Carolina Panthers yesterday left the final berth in the National Football Conference playoffs undecided. Had the Panthers won, they would have clinched the final playoff spot. For the Buccaneers to advance, they need to couple their win on Saturday with an Atlanta Falcons loss today to the New Orleans Saints.
Why?
Because if the Falcons beat the Saints, it will create a three-way tie with the Panthers, Buccaneers and Falcons all with 8 and 9 won/loss records. The formula for breaking that logjam of teams in the NFC South Division would go in favor of the Panthers. If the Saints win today in Atlanta, the Buccaneers win the division even with a won/loss record the same as Carolina.
Got that?
The announcers at the conclusion of the Buccaneers win on Saturday talked about how this gave significance to the Falcons winning at home. They now had a chance to affect the playoffs if only to determine by winning the Panthers go and with a loss open the path for the Buccaneers to earn the playoff fourth seed.
Teams out of the playoffs but having an opportunity to affect who advances most often falls to a team looking to knock off an opponent that needs a win to advance. It is common for a team out of the playoffs to beat a team that needs a win to earn a playoff spot. If a team is already assured of a playoff berth and meeting a team that needs it to get in, the team that needs it gets in almost all the time.
Now we have two teams playing at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium with neither owning a chance to advance, but both in position to affect the playoffs.
Does this offer an advantage to one side or the other?
By the way I figure things it is neutral from a motivational perspective, but that brings us back to both teams having something to play for and both teams playing their best ball of the season heading into this Week 18 matchup. The Falcons own a three-game winning streak punctuated by their victory over the Los Angeles Rams last Monday night. The upstart Saints, under the direction of first-year head coach Kellen Moore, have won four consecutive games including wins over the two teams vying for the playoff berth out of their division, the Bucs and Panthers.
After opening the campaign with only two point spread wins and a single straight-up victory over the first nine weeks, the Saints appear to have found their quarterback of the future in 26-year-old rookie Tyler Shough. He moved into the starting role mid-season and has shown improvement with his 2025 experience from week-to-week.
Shough played for three successful college programs, beginning with the Oregon Ducks and followed by the Texas Tech Red Raiders and his final college season last year at Louisville. The Saints drafted him in the second round of the 2025 draft.
So, what do we have here?
We’ve got the Falcons and Saints meeting to decide the winner of the NFC South Division while neither of them is in the running. We’ve got the two teams out of that division who over the past month have the best records … but not enough to overtake the Panthers or Buccaneers.
The Falcons are the only team to pin the Saints with a point spread loss since November 2, they downed New Orleans at the Superdome six weeks ago, 24-10. The Falcons are coming off their huge upset win over the Rams, and the Saints are perfectly poised to gain a revenge for their loss to Atlanta in November and send the Buccaneers into the playoffs.
Qoxhi Picks: New Orleans Saints (+3½) over the Atlanta Falcons