Two first place teams meet tonight in the NBC Primetime presentation of National Football League action. The combatants are the homestanding Los Angeles Rams versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Behind quarterback Baker Mayfield the Buccaneers shot out of the gate this season with victories in five of their first six games. Then, over the past month, the Bucs are one win and three losses which leaves them just a half game ahead of the surprising Carolina Panthers in the NFC South Division.
Somehow, because the Buccaneers losses have somewhat coincided with the injury loss of Bucky Irving, the media has latched onto the idea that his absence is the primary reason for the Buccaneers recent problems. I don’t see it that way. Irving, in his second season out of Oregon, is a solid back but in the four games he played this season he wasn’t necessarily special.
Still, the Bucs would like to have him back, which won’t happen tonight, but he is likely to return to action next week when Tampa Bay hosts the Arizona Cardinals.
So, if Irving wasn’t the primary reason for the Bucs success, and the major factor in their recent decline, what is?
First, Tampa Bay’s quick start this year was dotted with narrow wins and a certain addition of luck. The Atlanta Falcons missed a would-be tying field goal in the season opener that the Bucs won by three points on the road. They put together a miracle drive at the end of a second week game versus the Houston Texans to pull out a one-point win. They got by the lowly New York Jets by two points in a Week Three battle against an inept opponent.
They won the next Sunday in Seattle with a pair of late touchdowns that edged the Seahawks by three points and handed the San Francisco 49ers a loss the following week at home while the visitors were besieged with injuries.
Since those early season wins, the only victory for the Bucs since has been a triumph over the New Orleans Saints, while losses have come against the Detroit Lions, New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills.
Now, I ask you, is tonight’s opponent for Mayfield and company against a team on par with those three teams, or align with the likes of the Falcons, Jets and Saints?
Of course, the Rams are perhaps the best team they have faced this year and they have had trouble against quality opponents in previous matchups.
So, easy, right?
Take the Rams.
Well, while that would be my leaning, there are a couple problems with that side too. The line appears rather imposing at seven points given Mayfield has a habit of doing whatever it takes to keep his team close. Second, the Rams are coming off a pair of huge wins over their two primary NFC West Division opponents, the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks.
Do the Rams have a blowout in them after those two wins got them sole possession of first place, or is this a spot where even a win would not come in the form of a double-digit triumph?
I think the Rams may be the best team in football, but this one is not a spot to test an imposing point spread.