They really don’t know.
The inside people who usually know everything, more than the media, more than the teams and certainly more than the National Football League offices don’t know. In this case, I don’t even think the coach knows, because if he did, the bookmakers would know.
Inside information is always the key, sometimes illegal, and in almost all cases known by the people with the most at stake. One might think that the biggest gamblers every week are the bookmakers who set a line and then give people the opportunity to wager on either side of it. To balance their apparent disadvantage of giving the bettors the choice of sides, the books charge for the service, traditionally charging 10% on losing wagers. The vig.
Okay, a couple things. First, the people that don’t gamble every week are the books. They are running a business that they have designed to give them the advantage. And the public betting habits contribute more than the simple advantage of the vig, they more often than not bet on the wrong side of the offered propositions.
Why?
Because the books are the smartest rats in this game. They are so good at what they do they know where to set a line to entice the public to the wrong side. It is also true that books in Vegas that accept legal wagers normally show a profit of less than 10% of all action over the course of a season, but more than 8%. While the guy on the phone betting with his book loses at least 13% of the handle (the total amount wagered) and as much as 17% over the course of a season.