Thanksgiving is a great holiday for visiting.
Today, in the National Football League, it might also prove to be a great day for visitors.
A few years ago, there was conversation, mostly in the media and bars, that the Detroit Lions should be stripped of their long tradition of hosting the Thanksgiving game. They were so bad, for so long, that the fans and even the television companies looking for ratings, were tired of one-sided losses the woeful Lions routinely endured before Turkey was served.
Well, no more.
Today, the Lions are considered if not the best at least among the very best teams in football. No one in the NFL has a better record than Detroit’s 10-1 mark. And, unlike the Kansas City Chiefs, who are also 10-1, the Detroit victories have not been by narrow margins.
Kansas City is 4 and 7 against the point spread and has only two games this season they won by double-digits. In contrast, the Lions 10-1 straight-up record has also paid off for their backers at the window while generating a 9 and 2 mark against the point spread. On the season, the Lions have outscored their opponents by a league high 177 points.
Today, they host competition out of their NFC North Division, the Chicago Bears. Under the direction of rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, the Bears got their 2024 season off to a solid start with four wins in their first six games. Then, in search of their fifth win of the season, things have gone sideways for Matt Eberflus' men.
It started with a loss in Washington, when if they had prevented a Hail Mary pass on the game’s final play, they would have notched their fifth victory. They didn’t, and not much has gone right for Chicago since that disappointment.
They have strung together five losses, although over the past two Sundays, in games against the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings, the Bears have been close and gained a win and push against the point spread.
Chicago almost won their fifth game against Green Bay until a potential winning field goal was blocked. Last Sunday, they overcame a fourth quarter deficit against the Vikings at Soldier Field that resulted in an overtime game. Unfortunately, the late comeback was blunted when Sam Darnold led Minnesota to an overtime win.
By our numbers, the Bears are closing in on that elusive fifth win and the Lions, as good as they are, don’t appear to be in a spot where a blowout win is in the offing.
In the second game that has a long tradition on Thanksgiving, the Dallas Cowboys host one of their NFC East Division opponents, the New York Giants.
There was a time in this rivalry that this matchup would create great interest between outstanding coaches. Tom Landry and Jimmy Johnson were two of the best to ever coach in the NFL and both won Super Bowls while mentoring the Cowboys. Bill Parcells and Tom Coughlin were excellent sideline generals that took the Giants to multiple Super Bowl wins.
But today, we get Mike McCarthy against Brian DaBoll.
While McCarthy did earn a Super Bowl win while mentoring the Green Bay Packers, his time in Dallas has created more controversy than wins. As for Daboll, he had one campaign where he led the Giants to the playoffs and an opening playoff win two years ago but has fallen on tough times ever since that one overachieving season.
Now, there are a couple basic ways a team can earn a win in the NFL. Either the better team can have a bad day and hand the win to their overmatched opponent, or the better team can perform up to standards and notch an easy win.
Last week, the Cowboys were beneficiaries of the former. The Washington Commanders were coming off back-to-back losses but listed as a double-digit point spread favorite over a Cowboys team that had lost five straight games both straight-up and against the point spread. The overstated strength of Washington played out on the field, as the confident Commanders took one on the chin from the visiting Cowboys.
Now, the Cowboys, off that gift win, go from a double-digit underdog to a favorite of more than a field goal.
For the Giants, they are now forced to play Drew Lock at quarterback, the man who had been listed second on New York’s depth chart all season behind starting quarterback Daniel Jones. Then Jones was let go, and because of financial reasons, the Giants were going to have to pay Lock more than they wanted to if he played the rest of the season, so the New York front office dictated the less costly Tommy DeVito start behind center.
As fate would have it, DeVito was injured in his only start, a loss last week to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so the Giants are forced to go with Lock.
Which gives them a better chance at winning against a team primed for a loss.
Qoxhi Picks: New York Giants (+3½) over Dallas Cowboys