I have always operated from the premise that on any given Sunday any National Football League team can win. Motivated right, I would take a mouse in a horse race.
But the next generation of handicapping prowess in the Qoxhi Picks organization does not blindly subscribe to this theory. My son, Kevin, who has worked with me for years and has now earned an increasing role in the selections we deliver on Sunday, believes talent matters. While I was content on winning two out of three games on the point spread with the mouse in the horse race, Kevin would like to eliminate those games where we are simply overmatched and lose big.
If motivation is a drug, I’m an addict.
This season, Kevin has had me stay off a couple games I saw as motivational gems and he has proven right both times. My motivated team didn’t win or cover the point spread. So, understand I enter this week humbled by those results and pleased our clients were not pinned with two avoidable losers.
But now, this week, should I really let another motivational masterpiece just slip by because one team is in first place and the talk of the football world and their opponent by most estimates is the worst team in the league?
Let me explain.
The Washington Commanders lead the National Football Conference Eastern Division with four wins in their last five games and are coming off a loss in Baltimore against the Ravens that most give them credit for making the game competitive.
On my charts, beware of a team that gets credit for a loss.
Next week, the Commanders meet the Chicago Bears, a game that has added significance given the battle between the top two quarterbacks chosen in last April’s draft. The Bears had the first pick and chose USC’s Caleb Williams. The Commanders, with the second overall selection, took LSU’s Jayden Daniels.
Unlike last year, when the first pick by the Carolina Panthers, Bryce Young, was a bust and the second QB chosen was a raging success, C.J. Stroud, this year both these young slingers are playing above rookie standards. Williams has shown improvement on a week-to-week basis and Chicago may have their first franchise quarterback since the fire, and Daniels has set completion records that top the list of any quarterback at any time.
So, following the Ravens hard-fought 30-23 loss, the Commanders can’t be blamed for already entering anticipation mode for next week’s game. Problem with this is simple, they are off a loss and are favored this week in a game that most figure is in the bag. They host the Panthers, who we see as the mouse that can win a horse race.
The Panthers are horrible, make no mistake that I am aware of that. But they have been more competitive since replacing bust Young with veteran Andy Dalton at quarterback. They come into this game bent on avoiding getting blown out.
I like that in a team.
And the Commanders are being wagered on at a 20 to 1 clip in the books which has taken the opening number from them favored by three points originally, to 7½ points before most books posted this game, to a line nearing double-digit today.
What if I was to tell you that I didn’t think the Panthers were going to need the points, that the play here is the plus 475 on the moneyline.
You’d probably think I needed some help.
Qoxhi Picks: Carolina Panthers (+9½) over Washington Commanders