It all started out so well for the New Orleans Saints this season.
On opening day, the public was more enthralled that the Carolina Panthers would rebound from their disastrous 2023 campaign and that the first pick in last year’s draft, Bryce Young, would excel as a pro quarterback. The betting action on the Panthers drove the line down on the game. New Orleans had opened as a 4½ point favorite. By Sunday, the point spread showed the Saints favored by only 3½ points at the Superdome.
Then they played the game, and the Panthers didn’t look any better than the season before and we were just a couple weeks away from Young being benched in Carolina in favor of veteran Andy Dalton. In this sweet spot, the Saints marched to a convincing 47-10 victory.
Still, the betting public was not convinced the Saints were anything special and while they opened as an underdog in Dallas for second week action, the public backed the Cowboys in big numbers and drove the closing line to Dallas by 6½.
Seems the Cowboys crushing of the Cleveland Browns on the road in first week action, 33-17, was a lot more impressive to the public than the Saints throttle job over the Panthers.
This set up another sweet spot for the underrated Dennis Allen squad, and New Orleans took advantage with a second straight one-sided victory. The 44-19 clobbering of the Cowboys, coupled with their 47-10 opening game win, suddenly had New Orleans posted near the top on most NFL power ratings.
Two sweet spots, two easy wins.
Now what?
In the same weekend that the Saints beat the Cowboys in Dallas, the Philadelphia Eagles were losing their home opener on Monday night when newly acquired Atlanta Falcons Quarterback Kirk Cousins completed a final minute drive to provide the visitors a one-point win, 22-21. That result caused a seismic shift on the point spread in Vegas for the upcoming contest between the Eagles and Saints.
In the blink of an eye, the Cousins late drive shifted the point spread five points. The Eagles were slated to be a 2½ point favorite in the Big Easy, but after their loss, the Saints shifted to the 2½ point favorite.
First bad spot for the Saints, and while they held the Eagles off the scoreboard for three quarters, they gave up 15 points in the fourth quarter to come up on the wrong side of their battle with Philadelphia, 15-12.
The following week, they headed to Atlanta for a key NFC South Division game against the Falcons. They came into the game with two wins and one loss, while Atlanta had the opposite record with a pair of losses. That made the situation favorable for the home team, and while the game was highly competitive the line made all the difference. Cousins led another late winning drive for the Falcons, but the winning field goal resulted in a two-point win and a half-point loss on the spread for the home team. The Saints got 2½ points in that game, and lost by a 26-24 final score.
The point spread win seemed to reignite the public wagering that was still apparently focusing on the Saints two opening season triumphs and now a point spread win on a division opponent’s home field. That is why, to my surprise quite frankly, the public sided with the Saints last Monday night for their encounter with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
The game opened with the Chiefs favored by eight points, but the public leaped for the Saints getting “way too many points” as one pundit proclaimed while siding with the road underdog. The line shifted as many as three points, down to five, and closed with the defending Super Bowl Champions only needing to give 5½ points on the spread.
The Saints had a horrible Monday at Arrowhead, they not only lost the game by double-digits, 26-13, but also lost starting quarterback Derek Carr to an oblique injury that will sideline him for this Sunday’s battle against one of the NFC South Division leaders.
That’s right, despite their quick start, New Orleans’ three straight losses now have them behind both the Falcons and Buccaneers, who have both won three games while playing out of the NFC South.
The Bucs had a chance to lock down their first place standing in this division last week but lost to the Falcons in a Thursday night primetime contest, 36-30. Tampa Bay fell victim to another Cousins led dramatic win, a late drive tying the game and forcing overtime, and a touchdown in the extra period.
Now, Baker Mayfield and company come to New Orleans while the Saints are reeling from three straight losses and the injury to Carr.
You know what that means?
This is the first time since second week action in Dallas that the Saints are in a good motivational spot. They took advantage of their first two sweet spots with victories by scores of 47-10 and 44-19. But that was with Carr running their offense. This week, with Carr expected to miss multiple weeks, the Saints will turn to either Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler.
Haener is listed second on New Orleans’ depth chart, but there are strong indicators that Head Coach Allen is going to opt for the rookie signal caller that New Orleans selected in the fifth round this year.
No matter who starts, he is going to gain reviews that skew his real talent level. Because on Sunday, the 21 players performing around the backup quarterback are going to make all the difference in a Saints victory.
Qoxhi Picks: New Orleans Saints (+3 ½) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers