I suspect that when the primetime schedule was released a few months ago tonight’s matchup in Dallas looked a lot more attractive than it has come to be. The Houston Texans, with second year signal caller C.J. Stroud following up his fabulous rookie season with a battle against the always in the playoff hunt Dallas Cowboys.
The state of Texas could have been in a frenzy for this one.
Well, not so much.
Stroud lost his major weapon to injury during an early season win over the Buffalo Bills, and hasn’t had Nico Collins to throw to since. With Collins sidelined, the Texans offense became downright boring. Stroud was suffering through what many sophomore signal callers have trouble overcoming. Defenses have studied their tendencies and made adjustments to ground their attack, and the athlete often has more confidence than they should for their own good after a highly successful campaign.
Still, while the Texans have struggled to live up to expectations as evidenced by their losing 4-5-1 point spread mark, they have won six of ten games straight up and lead the pack in the AFC South Division. That lead was reduced slightly yesterday when the second place Indianapolis Colts upset the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium to earn their fifth win of the year.
Tonight, Collins is back in the Texans lineup, and that gives Stroud the weapon that opens up the Texans offense like a flower blooming in spring.
Good for the Texans, but does that mean they can even their point spread record with a win over the number tonight when they meet the Cowboys as a touchdown favorite in Big D?
My natural inclination is to side with motivation. I have been accused of backing a mouse in a horse race if the mouse is properly motivated. How can tonight’s mouse, the home standing Cowboys, not be properly motivated?
If there is a rock bottom, the Cowboys have already found it.
After winning their opener in Cleveland over a Browns team we now know is not good, their season has gone from bad to worse. First, with home losses to the New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens in second and third-week action. Then they got a couple narrow wins over the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers and have been horrible ever since.
In mid-October the Lions beat them on their home field, 47-9, and even that loss was not enough to spur the Cowboys onto a victory over any of their other opponents since their October 20th open date. The Cowboys have lost to the San Francisco 49ers and Atlanta Falcons on the road, in the process losing quarterback Dak Prescott to a season ending injury. They got no boost in performance while trying to compensate for the loss of Prescott while with Cooper Rush behind center the Philadelphia Eagles pounded them in front of their home fans, 34-6, last Sunday.
So, does this mouse have a bounce in its step? Is this where the Cowboys rise up with a performance motivated by looking into the abyss and give the Texans enough of a game to at least win with the generous point spread?
If the Cowboys were going to get a boost with the loss of their quarterback two weeks ago in Atlanta, it should have happened last week as a home dog against a division opponent.
It didn’t.
Now Dallas plays a team that saw their nearest competition pull off a narrow win yesterday to close in on their AFC South Division race. The Texans are also looking to end a two-game losing streak suffered against the New York Jets and Detroit Lions.
So, does that make this a good spot for Houston?
No.
When a team is looking to end a losing run, they need to be challenged by their opponent. Nothing is worse from a motivational perspective than to be confident you can handle an opponent when you have lost multiple games coming into the contest.
I don’t like the Cowboys, but tonight they are in a perfect spot to spring a mouse trap on their unsuspecting visitors.
Qoxhi Picks: Dallas Cowboys (+7) over Houston Texans