Sunday’s battle between the two leaders in the National Football Conference North Division couldn’t set up any better for the first place Minnesota Vikings. They are coming off their bye week after winning their fifth straight game over the New York Jets in London two weeks ago. The Vikings are at home and come into the contest relatively injury free.
Contrast this to the Detroit Lions.
They are playing their second straight road game after a tough challenge last week against the Dallas Cowboys in a game in which they lost their best defensive lineman for the season. Aidan Hutchinson suffered a broken leg in the Lions visit to Dallas and is out for the season. He was Detroit’s first pick in the 2022 draft out of Michigan and living up to his lofty draft status.
So, with all this on the table, the Vikings are a slight favorite this week at home against the Lions.
But, before we bemoan the Lions injury situation and travel schedule, know this, they are playing like the best team in football. Yes, they have a loss on their resume, but that tough game in Dallas was anything but. Detroit went into AT&T Stadium and shot the Cowboys down with their biggest home loss ever, 47-9.
Fluke?
Bad day for Dak Prescott?
No. Complete domination by Dan Campbell’s squad as they tallied 40 or more points for a second straight game. Detroit downed the Seattle Seahawks, 42-29, prior to their Cowboys trouncing.
Now, handicappers, which I like to consider myself even though I sided with Dallas last week, will look at history that shows a team that scores more than 40 points in back-to-back games has a letdown in their next game. Trouble winning, and more trouble covering a point spread.
But what those naked stats do not show is the unique situation for any specific game. For starters, a team that has rolled to a lot of points in recent games and are high fiving each other in the film session leading up to their next game could be in trouble if they are over-confident. For a team to succeed, a healthy fear of failure is always an asset.
If, for example, the Lions were headed to Carolina this week a blip on their superiority could be in the offing. But, headed to Minnesota to battle an undefeated Vikings team that they trail in their division standings?
Not a likely spot for a Detroit letdown.
In fact, the team with the heavier burden this Sunday from a motivational perspective is the Vikings looking to pull two games ahead of a team that by all outward appearances appears better than them.
Yep, this contest sets up well on the calendar and travel schedules for the home squad, but once these two teams take the field this weekend, all the edges will be with the visitors.
Qoxhi Picks: Detroit Lions (+2½) over Minnesota Vikings