A National Football League season is like the weather. Seemingly every year, at some point, the public will be asking the question, “Have you ever seen a season like this?”
The assumption in that comment is that this year is totally unique from any that preceded it. That no one could have predicted what we are now experiencing.
People, it’s the weather. It’s the NFL season. It is the same every year. What is supposed to happen does and it’s never exactly as most people would have imagined.
With that said, I will now counter that with this statement, the 2024 NFL season is unique in one important aspect: the gap between the have and have-nots.
This weekend, the Buffalo Bills have a chance to clinch their division title on Thanksgiving weekend. This is very early, like the Easter Bunny showing up on Christmas.
Each year there are one, two, maybe as many as three teams so bad in the league that they get rolled even when they are in a prime spot to take advantage of a motivational situation with a bloated point spread. This year, the number of teams that can fail in the best of circumstances is at least seven, maybe more.
The team with the best record in the league, the Kansas City Chiefs, are a money burning 4 and 7 against the point spread. They can get clipped against the point spread even while playing one of the teams deemed the worst. They meet the Las Vegas Raiders on Friday in a special Black Friday contest, and while they beat the Raiders in their first 2024 meeting, they lost against the point spread. This week, they are double-digit favorites against the struggling Raiders. Kansas City backers are like the figure out of history that continues to beat themselves with a rubber hose.
But do we want the Raiders in this spot?
They were in one of those great spots that should have produced a point spread win last Sunday and they fell an inch short at the goal line and lost both the game and to the number.
Then we have a pair of teams that have played above and below their season projections meeting this weekend in Atlanta when the Falcons host the Los Angeles Chargers. In his first season in Southern California, head coach Jim Harbaugh has taken a previously soft Los Angeles unit and turned the Chargers into a tough squad with an identity of defensive strength. They have allowed the fewest points in the league.
The Falcons, meanwhile, came into this season with the promise that a new quarterback and new head coach were going to turn Atlanta from an also-ran to a playoff participant. Raheem Morris has the respect of his players and quarterback Kirk Cousins credentials that should have allowed Atlanta a major edge in a division without a top tier team.
The preseason book on the Falcons had their win total pumped up to 9½ games, more wins than the Falcons had won in every season since 2017. The high win total for the Falcons was a combination of their perceived improvement and the suspected weak competition in the NFC South Division. A group that along with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers includes two cellar-dwellers, the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints.
The season got off to a rocky start for the Falcons, losing at home as a favorite on opening day to the Pittsburgh Steelers and after a narrow win in Philadelphia losing another close one at home to the Kansas City Chiefs.
As it turned out, neither of those losses should have put too much of a damper on the Falcons prospects. We now know that they opened the season against three teams that currently lead their divisions. The Falcons lead their division too, but a once multiple game advantage over their competition has been reduced to a single game while Atlanta has stumbled recently.
Headed into their bye week Atlanta lost a pair of games. First, in a close one to the Saints in New Orleans, 20-17, and then a thumping in Denver to the Broncos, 38-6. Now they come off their bye week posted as a home underdog to Harbaugh’s Chargers.
Yes, the Chargers need this game to keep their Wild Card hopes intact, and they have what some consider the best defense in football given they have allowed the fewest points.
But, what those raw stats don’t show is just who the Chargers success has been gained against. In fact, the Chargers won/loss record and defensive prowess has been mostly earned against the expanded list of teams that can’t win in the best of circumstances.
The Falcons?
Oh yeah, they can win in the best of circumstances, like as a home team underdog off a bye following an embarrassing loss against a team working on a short week. The Chargers played the Ravens last Monday night.
Atlanta is good enough, and the Chargers aren’t.
Qoxhi Picks: Atlanta Falcons (+2) over Los Angeles Chargers