Without the Atlanta Falcons final minute come-from-behind win over the Philadelphia Eagles last Monday night this game would not have nearly the intrigue it offers now. If the Falcons wouldn’t have scored late, tonight’s game would involve the defending Super Bowl Champions with a perfect record against a winless Falcons team that missed the playoffs last season.
Dud.
But now we have the defending champions who survived a couple close contests at home to win a pair of games, first over the Baltimore Ravens and last Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals, up against a Falcons team with a veteran quarterback and talent on both sides of the ball.
The drive last Monday night also shifted the perception of this game. The point spread posted in Vegas when Kirk Cousins started his late drive had the Chiefs favored by 4½ points for tonight’s contest. After five completions and a winning touchdown, the line shifted a point and since has been sliced another half-point with the Chiefs currently listed as a field goal favorite.
Now, here is the rub, if the Falcons would not have come back and won six nights ago the line on this game would likely have the undefeated Chiefs favored by five points. And brace yourself, if the Falcons would have gone down to the Eagles, they would have had a better chance of winning this game tonight.
Why?
Because the motivation off a loss is always more intense than the preparation for a team off a victory. This rule is particularly prevalent after a road upset win against a highly regarded foe in dramatic fashion.
If the Falcons lose last Monday at Lincoln Financial Field, I’m all over them tonight getting more points than currently available. But, off that win and with a shaved line, well the value on either side in this game is significantly less pronounced.
Now, still, if push came to shove, and knowing how football fans like action on prime-time games, I’m going to let you know which side I’m on even if it is not a money rated play.
The Kansas City Chiefs have not looked like a team poised to win a third straight Super Bowl this year. Patrick Mahomes is still amazing, and he is the primary reason they escaped with wins against both the Ravens and Bengals. But the Chiefs defense has not been special, and when champions are crowned the ability to shut down opposing offenses is always a critical factor in their success.
Second, the Chiefs receiving corps is still not what it was at the height of their offensive prowess and before they lost talent at that position beginning two seasons ago. Mahomes throws passes that are so sweet a six-year-old could catch one with ease, but the Kansas City receivers have had a number of unforced drops over the first two weeks.
The Chiefs offense has been saved by two primary reasons, first, Mahome’s ability to scramble and pick up key yardage at critical times and second, the explosive running of third year running back Isiah Pacheco. Late in last week’s win over Joe Burrow and company, Pacheco suffered a broken fibula and his return any time this season is in doubt. Without him, and on the road against a much-improved Falcons team, Atlanta gets our edge tonight … I just wish it was with different motivation and more points.