One might think that tonight’s Sunday primetime game between the Houston Texans and Detroit Lions would be an easy one for me to pick. After all, the Lions are my preseason Super Bowl choice and I had the Texans in for a rough year coming off their skyrocket 2023 season.
But, this one has other elements as we reach the midway point of the 2024 season.
First, Detroit is playing so well and are coming off impressive win after impressive win including last Sunday’s beat-down of one of their primary NFC North Division rivals, the Green Bay Packers, at Lambeau Field. At some point, history tells us, the Lions are going to have an off game and following six straight wins and a victory over the Packers on the road last week marks this a likely time.
But, before we get excited about taking the Texans in this contest, we run into their problems since their star wide receiver, Nico Collins, went down with an injury. That happened five weeks ago when Houston was sailing along with a double-digit lead over the visiting Buffalo Bills. Then Collins was injured, and C.J. Stroud’s passing attack went from high efficiency to pedestrian mode.
In his absence, the Texans have struggled, losing two of their most recent three games and not putting up more than 23 points in any of those contests.
Today, we expect Collins to return to the Texans lineup. Houston Head Coach DeMeco Ryans has been playing coy on whether he will start, he is listed on the Injury Report as questionable. But I suspect this is more for competitive reasons than truly any doubt the talented receiver will be reinserted into the Texans offense.
But, before we assume that, we note that despite recent trouble moving the ball, Houston still maintains at least a two-game advantage over the rest of their NFC South Division competition. If Collins isn’t 100% there is no need to push his progress and risk aggravating his injury. Ryans is smart enough to make the right choice, so the possibility of resting Collins one more week is a real concern for those who might side with the home team tonight.
While we predicted a down year for the Texans this year based on their rapid rise from last place to the playoffs last season, their results in the win/loss column have been well above our projections. They burst to five wins in their first six decisions and even with the recent stumbles their 6 and3 win/loss mark is among the best in the AFC. The problem for the Texans has been more on the point spread results than their straight-up record. Against the number, Houston is 3-5-1.
Then we take a look at the Lions, who roll opponents like the Los Angeles Lakers would a cub scout basketball team. Their only loss of the season was a home defeat against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in second week action. Since that contest, the roaring Lions have rolled to six straight wins and point spread covers. Only once, against the Minnesota Vikings four weeks ago, were the Lions in a competitive game. Most Detroit wins have been by double-digits, some look like they could have been triple-digit wins.
So, in this otherwise sweet spot for the Texans plus the points tonight, we respect the Lions enough to reduce this contest to for viewing purposes only.