There is only one road favorite on this season’s National Football League opening day schedule. The Houston Texans are currently favored by two points for their contest in Indianapolis against the Colts. There were two other road favorites on the opening lines, the Minnesota Vikings (-1½) over the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys (-1½) over the Cleveland Browns. Yet, early action on those contests now has the Vikings and Giants matchup posted as a pick 'em and the Browns a one-point favorite over the Cowboys.
Is betting on home teams on opening day warranted?
Over the past 20 NFL seasons home favorites are 140-77 straight-up, a robust 65% winning mark. Yet, with the smart people in charge of setting the lines on these games, that winning 65% margin is reduced to 56% losers. The point spread record for home favorites in those same 217 games is 96-111-10 against the number.
In a typical season, 16% of straight up winners lose against the point spread. But, on opening day, winning teams that lose the wager balloons to 21%.
Why?
Because early season betting by the public is mostly tied to how teams did last season. In fact, the only road favorite this season, the Texans, had a breakout campaign last year when they went for the cellar to the playoffs. Houston’s success was keyed by two newcomers to the organization; first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans and sensational rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Ryans came from a highly successful stint as defensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers, Stroud the second overall pick in the 2023 draft out of Ohio State. On the heels of recent dismal seasons the Texans were able to collect a lot of blue chip talent in the draft, and the addition of Ryans and Stroud sent the team soaring.
Following a three win last place finish in 2022, the Texans rode to the top of the AFC South Division last year and opened the post season with a victory over the Cleveland Browns. The breakout season ended with a loss in Baltimore to the talented Ravens, but the winning ways enjoyed last season sends the Texans into the 2024 campaign with high expectations.
Is that a problem?
Yes.
The success the Texans enjoyed last year was not triggered by high expectations, but rather a concern that a first-year head coach and rookie quarterback was a formula for another disappointing campaign. Instead, the Texans turned that concern into a motivational boost that had them exceed all preseason expectations.
Now, on the heels of that success, the Texans prepare for the 2024 season with confidence that another winning campaign is coming. But, when expectations exceed actual talent and winning tradition, problems almost always ensue. History shows that when a team enjoys a breakout campaign following years of dismal finishes in their division race, a decline in results in their first year after success is common.
For example, when the San Francisco 49ers won their first Super Bowl behind Joe Montana to complete the 1981 season, they missed an expanded playoff field the following season and ended 1982 with more losses than wins. Same goes for the New England Patriots, who surprised the football world in 2001 when Tom Brady replaced an injured Drew Bledsoe early in the season and ended the year with a stunning victory over the double-digit favored St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. The next year, the Patriots missed the playoffs with a nine win campaign.
If Montana and Brady can fall prey to the year after a breakout campaign, what chances do you give Stroud?
Houston, you’ve got a problem.
They don’t know it yet, but reality will begin to creep into their team after they get upset in a most likely spot; off a breakthrough campaign and as an opening day road favorite against a division opponent.
Qoxhi Picks: Indianapolis Colts (+2) over Houston Texans