There are times when handicapping is at odds with the actual football game matchup. I find myself looking for an edge not necessarily revealed in rushing and passing stats, but more from a motivational or trend perspective. I have a natural tendency to gravitate to underdogs for the simple reason that if I can find an underdog I consider a solid prospect to win the game, the point spread is never a hindrance and can be the difference in gaining a win.

I hate rooting for a point spread favorite that late in a game lead by nine points or more and are playing to win while giving a bleep about the point spread. Announcers use terms when an underdog scores a late touchdown that cuts into a deficit but doesn’t change the straight-up winner like “window dressing” or “meaningless.” But if that late score changed the point spread decision in my world it meant everything.

The teams on the field didn’t have any extra effort to defend the late score either, but for the bettors that “meaningless” touchdown made all the difference.

In XXIX the San Francisco 49ers were favored by 19½ points, a line in the Super Bowl bigger than any since the New York Jets win over the Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl III. The mismatch on the field had the smart money taking the bloated line, while I decided to wager on the clearly better football team.

Early in the fourth quarter Jerry Rice caught a touchdown pass from Steve Young to extend the Niners advantage to 49-18.

Safe? Right?

Later in the fourth quarter the Chargers scored a touchdown and added a two-point conversion not long after Young celebrated on the sideline to have the money removed from his back. The Niners were on their way to their fifth Super Bowl title in five trips to the final game in search of the Vince Lombardi Trophy. But the point spread wasn’t settled, and after the Chargers converted the two-point conversion the 49ers margin was 23 points, 49-26.

The Chargers got the ball back late and Chargers quarterback Stan Humphries was throwing into a defense that had accomplished all they needed to already. The ABC television coverage captured San Francisco defensive backs Deion Sanders and Merton Hanks dancing near the goal line with smiles that could have been featured in a toothpaste commercial.

Humphries was in range to reach the endzone with a pass, in fact, close enough to throw over the back of the endzone on his last two attempts as time expired. It appeared to me the only defense against a late Chargers touchdown, which would have made the wise guys right about taking the points, was the endline … and Humphries cleared it twice.

It was a win, a point spread cover, but I felt like I just sat through a root canal procedure.

Tomorrow, football tells me the Seattle Seahawks are good enough to win this game and cover the 4½ point spread. But from a handicapping perspective, I can cite the fact that no team that scored 23 points or more and allowed 23 or less in as many as seven straight games has ever lost their league championship. The Patriots did it a record ten games in a row this season.

The Patriots got here while scoring the fewest points for a team winning at least three postseason games on their way to a conference championship. The Patriots scored a total of 54 points while eliminating the Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans and Denver Broncos. The three teams that have scored the fewest points in three playoff games and advanced to the Super Bowl before the Patriots all won rings. They were the 2000 Baltimore Ravens (61), 2007 New York Giants (68) and 2023 Kansas City Chiefs (70).

So, handicapping edges say take the Patriots plus the points.

Sometimes you have to let the teams do the job … football matters. I think that may well be the case tomorrow.