Beginning in 1975, the National Football League adopted the playoff seeding based on regular season records. In the 50 Super Bowls played since the seeding rules were put in place top seeds have advanced to the big game 57 times and second seeds 24 times. The remaining Super Bowl appearances were by teams with a third seed (5), fourth seed (11), fifth seed (3) and sixth seed (2).

In 2020, the NFL added a seventh seed in each conference, but no team that qualified for the playoffs out of that slot has yet advanced to the Super Bowl.

This year, we have a number one seed, the Seattle Seahawks, matching up against a second seed, the New England Patriots. The most common seed matches have been between first and second seeded teams along with top seeds versus each other, both have occurred 15 times since 1975.

The top seeds have beaten the second seeds ten times in their previous 14 contests … but against the point spread, the number one versus number two seeds are 7 and 7.

One looking for an edge in Sunday’s game involving the Seahawks and Patriots would have to look somewhere other than the seed. It is worth noting that on the four occasions when the number two seed was favored over the top seed they beat the spread three out of four times.

In Super Bowl XVII, the Miami Dolphins were the second seed and favored over the top seed Washington Redskins. That is the only time that the top seed getting points won the game. The Redskins beat the Dolphins 27-17 as a three-point underdog.

In the other three games when the number one seed was an underdog it was for good reason. In Super Bowl XXIII the top seed Cincinnati Bengals lost to Joe Montana’s final minute scoring drive to edge the Bengals in Bill Walsh’s last game as head coach. The 49ers won the game by four points, 20-16, but were favored by seven.

In Super Bowl XXXIX, which completed the 2004 season, the New England Patriots were a second seed and favored by seven points. They won the game, 24-21, but lost the point spread decision while favored by seven points.

Six years ago, the second seed Kansas City Chiefs were favored over the number one seed 49ers and won the game straight-up by 11 points, 31-20, while giving 1½ points on the line.

In the eleven games the top seed has been favored over a second seed their straight-up record is 11-3 but their point spread record is 5-5-1.

So, what we can deduce from these numbers is that the Seahawks have a very good chance of winning Super Bowl LX based on being the number one seed. But the chances of them covering the point spread is historically a 50/50 proposition.

After visiting the NFL’s Super Bowl headquarters today in San Francisco, I can tell you that I’m pretty sure we can bend that 50/50 point spread proposition to our favor. Now, this is not a column my wife is going to enjoy, I can hear her now even before she says it, “Too many facts, not enough story.”

Well, here’s the story.

I know who is going to win the Super Bowl and by how many. But to tell you now would take all the fun out of the rest of the week. So, for you, and certainly my wife, I will look to add more “story” content the rest of the week and abandon the dry numbers for the column’s sake. But just so you know, numbers matter and I’ll be working them right up to Sunday’s release of our Super Bowl pick.