The weather for the final Sunday of the National Football League regular season is mostly cold and clear with the only extended rain periods expected for Tennessee where the Titans host the Houston Texans.
Who needs it, who wants it, and who is going to get it are questions that surround the final day of regular season play. A team that needs only to win to land a playoff spot can have a lot of trouble against a team already eliminated. That is the formula, but when the teams that meet that criteria are matched up today that theory falls second to the huge majority of bettors taking the team that only needs to win to advance to the playoffs.
What is the game?
It is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home against the New Orleans Saints. The most-bet game this week is the Buccaneers laying the two-touchdown point spread against the Saints. I can see that side, the Bucs have lit up the scoreboard on numerous occasions this year with Baker Mayfield conducting a pass happy offense.
The Saints, who started the season with two huge wins, have dropped down to an also-ran from the third week on. Injuries played an early role in the Saints decline and then the organization fired Head Coach Dennis Allen and have been in mostly freefall ever since.
Still, I wouldn’t follow the crowd over the cliff, laying two touchdowns with a Buccaneers team with the pressure of needing a win to secure the NFC South Division title and coming off a lopsided victory last week over the Carolina Panthers, 48-14, appears risky.
Sometimes, the best play is no play.
Teams that have absolutely nothing to play for today with their postseason seed already assured are the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles and Houston Texans. Those four teams could be easy pickins for a team that needs a win to earn a playoff spot. The Bills, Eagles and Texans all play teams already eliminated, namely, the New England Patriots, New York Giants and Tennessee Titans.
But the Chiefs do play a team that needs a win to advance when they travel to Denver to meet Sean Payton’s Broncos. This is a classic edge for the home team that needs the win against a team already locked into their playoff seed. In the Chiefs case, they have already secured the top seed in the AFC.
But, before you run down to ride the Broncos, know this, the last four times the Chiefs have rested their starters on the final day of the regular season during the Andy Reid years they are 2 and 2 straight-up and 3 and 1 versus the point spread. In this spot, I think the Broncos do beat the Chiefs, but I’m not going to lay 11 points to find out if Denver is the right side by a wide margin.
As for the public this week, their most-bet game is the Buccaneers (-14) over the Saints. Their next two favorite plays are the Washington Commanders (-6½) over the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Chargers (-7) over the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Qoxhi Week 18 money rated picks for today’s games are now posted on this site, and if a Bullet Play develops in the final hour leading up to the first kickoff that game will be added to the list of recommendations by 9:45 a.m. Pacific Time.