Everyone seems to think they know who is going to win this week in the National Football League. There are teams that need a victory to earn or keep their playoff hopes alive and those teams that are headed to the off-season with seemingly “nothing” to play for.
On Saturday, we get a Baltimore Ravens team that needs a win over the Cleveland Browns to clinch the NFC North Division and earn a home postseason game. With a loss, the Ravens could drop to a Wild Card playoff role and open the postseason on the road. The team right behind them in this quest for the AFC North title is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have dropped their last three games and would need both a win over the visiting Cincinnati Bengals and a loss by the Ravens to capture the title.
Seems easy.
Ravens over the Browns.
This is where the books come in to set point spreads that cloud the obvious. The Ravens opened as a 17-point favorite, a lot of points but a number I was willing to lay. Now, the spread has grown to 20 points, and the obvious is shrouded in a bad line. Over the past 25 seasons there have been 10 games in the NFL with a team favored by 20 or more points. The favorite is 10 and 0 straight-up in those games but has a 4 and 6 point spread record.
Seventeen, okay, 20, I’ll pass.