NFL 2024 Season - Week 18
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Articles published multiple times per week, offering insights and picks on upcoming games.
 
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Week 18
Point Spread Clouds
Fix It
Hollow Revenge
To Win or Not to Win
Week 17
All Knowing
Complicated Made Simple
Advanced Calculus
Glow Dimmed
Brink of Elimination
Game of Survival
Pleading for the Fifth
Need over Nothing
Christmas Grinch
Week 16
Numbers, Numbers, Numbers
Vintage 2018
Penix Debut
Dog Day
Playoff Position
Rest of the Story
Different Sundays
Run Some Tests
Without and With
Week 15
Two Tonight
Playoff Chances
Wild Card Challenge
Best of the Best
Next
Dire Straits
And It's Good
Bloated Lines
Week 14
Running up the Score
Challenge Me
Finding Reasons to Win
Crab Feed
Week Off
Good Enough
Buyers Regret
Pulled the Rug
Week 13
Mile High Hopes
Top and Bottom
Fourth Time the Charm
Bounce Back
Engage Spark
Line Up
Out in the Cold
Thanksgiving Visitors
Good Enough
Motivation on Steroids
Week 12
Second Best
Heavyweight Bout
QB's Ins and Outs
Everybody In
Too Easy
Walk the Plank
Hot to Trot
Try, Try, Try, Try, Try Again
Week 11
Mouse Trap
Must Game
Malfunction
Easy Does It
Old Foes
Falcons Fly into Mile High
Matter of Time
Improv
To the Brink
Week 10
Odd Man Out
Lions come Calling
Rookie versus Veteran
Call to Action
Full Reverse
When 8-0 is 4-4
Game of Contradictions
NFC West Bunch
Early Boarding
Week 9
Not Enough, Too Much
Real or Imposters
Groin Shot
Best Show
Saddle Up
Dull Edges
Telling Actions
Annihilation Formula
Week 8
No and No
Old Glory
Rookie Face Off
Adding it Up
Holding On
Jets Down
Unload and Reload
No Surprise
Career Paths
It Hurts
Week 7
Harbaugh Monday
Kids Camp
Barkley Back
Bird Battle
Mouse Time
Too Many?
Gone Shopping
Not Bad
40 for 3
Week 6
Try New
Night Vision
Trap Door
Looking Up
Wake Up Call
All Good Things
Bad Idea
Unexpected
Fire One
Week 5
Yes & Yes
Old Rivals
Rookie Sensation
So Close
Lunch in Seattle
Wake the Roosters
No Respect
Too Sweet
Turtle Flip
Week 4
Landmine
Bottoms Up
Winners and Losers
Call Me
Short Line
Reality Bites
Like Tonight
Uptick
Challenge Generates Performance
Week 3
Two Times
Reduced Value
Stars Down
The Other 21
Opportunity Knocks
Lots of Questions
Move Along People
Times Up
Week 2
Confidence Game
First and Second Picked QB's
Avoiding the Donut
Do or Die
One for the Road
Likewise
Adjustment Bureau
Down ... Not Out
Week 1
Time Marches On
Cashing the Trade
Start Here
Say What
Quick Up, Quick Down
Brazil Play Date
Top Two Open
Super Bowl Pick
Season Win Totals
Moving on Up
Breakout to Breakdown
Preseason 4
Preseason Wrap
Rookie Playoff Run
Preseason 3
Short Memory
Two In, One Up
Eagles Hunt
Winning Formula
Preseason 2
Quarterback Shuffle
One Two, or Two One
Starters Sit
Remote Control
Money be Damned
Preseason 1
One Season to the Next
Public Shift
Comets in the Night
Offseason
Mahomes Chasing History
All's Well that Ends Well
Ups and Downs
     
 
Glow Dimmed
by Dennis Ranahan

I’ve heard that enthusiasm over a win before.

I heard it firsthand with the Oakland Raiders the week after we beat the Miami Dolphins to end their winning streak in 1973, and to end their Super Bowl run in 1974. I heard it from the Buffalo Bills after they blasted the Los Angeles Raiders, 51-3, in the 1990 American Football Conference Championship Game. I heard it from the Jacksonville Jaguars after they crushed the Miami Dolphins, 62-7, in a 1999 playoff game.

I heard it again this week, that voice of satisfied confidence that last week’s win is a precursor for good things to come.

It never is.

This week it was Dan Quinn, head coach of the Washington Commanders, who during an interview could not hide his enthusiasm over how his team had hung in there, overcame all obstacles, and ended the Philadelphia Eagles ten game winning streak with a dramatic late touchdown to earn a thrilling 36-33 victory. The win put his young surprising team on the cusp of securing a postseason berth.

All that remains for Washington to lock up a playoff date is a home victory on Sunday over a rookie quarterback making his second professional start with a team that has lost four of their most recent six games.

Easy.

Right?

Nope.

Nearly impossible.

The rookie quarterback is Michael Penix Jr. of the Atlanta Falcons. He replaced a totally ineffective Kirk Cousins who single handedly cost the Falcons wins in recent weeks with a series of interceptions that turned would-be Atlanta conquests into victories for his opposition. Last week, in his first start, Penix had the advantage of playing against one of the NFL’s weaklings, the New York Giants, and led the Falcons to an easy win, 34-7. Now, in his second start, the competition and game site make the challenge more daunting for the Falcons rookie signal caller.

On the road against another rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels, who is enjoying one of the best seasons ever for a first-year quarterback. Daniels has a completion percentage that ranks among the best all-time and a pocket awareness that belies his youth. He has the ability to run, when necessary, but the intelligence and poise to keep his head looking for potential receivers before abandoning his passing opportunities too soon. A weakness young quarterbacks with the ability to run consistently fall prey to.

The Commanders satisfying come-from-behind triumph over the Eagles all but erases the trouble they had the week before in beating the New Orleans Saints. A team that was a two-point conversion at the end of the game away from handing the Commanders a loss before Washington escaped with a 20-19 conquest.

The Falcons have something more than the Commanders to play for this week. With last week's home win coupled with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday night loss in Dallas, the Falcons are back on top in the NFC South Division. Both Tampa Bay and Atlanta are 8 and 7 this season, but the Falcons downed Baker Mayfield and company in both their head-to-head regular season meetings. That means, if the Falcons and Buccaneers end the season with the same won/loss records, the division title and playoff berth go to Atlanta.

The Commanders making the playoffs even with a loss this week is likely; the Falcons are more in need of a win this week to improve their prospects for postseason participation. And they catch the Commanders off the glow of a victory that history shows always leads to a loss.

Qoxhi Picks: Atlanta Falcons (+3½) over Washington Commanders